Biden's Ukraine Crisis Reaches a Crescendo

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Russia has amassed around 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border in an effort to threaten, and possibly invade, Ukraine.
• Missteps and inaction by the Biden administration have sent the Kremlin the signal that the U.S. will not defend Ukraine’s sovereignty and will not seriously act to deter Russia.
• Democrats in the Senate have not helped, impeding Republican efforts to sanction the Kremlin’s Nord Stream 2 project due to Biden administration pressure. 

The situation in Ukraine is becoming more dangerous, as Russia continues to build its forces along the countries’ border. Russia has occupied parts of Ukraine since it invaded and occupied Crimea and instigated the separatist movement in the Donbas region in 2014. The current activity heightens concerns that the Russians will once again invade Ukraine to occupy more territory. The Biden administration’s foreign policy failures, like allowing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the shambolic Afghanistan withdrawal, dragging its feet on supplying military aid to Ukraine, and alienation of our eastern European NATO allies, have emboldened Vladimir Putin to challenge the West openly.

Russia Squeezes In On Ukraine

Russia spreading its tentacles

In February 2014, upset at Ukraine’s pro-western trajectory, Russia moved to destabilize and occupy parts of the country with unmarked soldiers who became known in the press as “Little Green Men.” Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and since then has funded, armed, and supported militias fighting the Ukrainian government in the Donbas region. The ongoing conflict has killed more than 3,000 civilians and displaced 1.5 million people, according to the United Nations. Russian supplies and support have kept the conflict at a stalemate and led to the downing of a passenger jet, Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, by a Russian anti-aircraft missile. 

Despite a ceasefire brokered in 2015, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians continue to die in skirmishes on the border. NATO and the U.S. have responded with military deployments in Eastern Europe to deter further aggression in the region, and the Trump administration began providing the Ukrainians with lethal military aid, including anti-tank missiles intended to deter further Russian aggression.

Throughout this period, Russian cyberattacks have repeatedly hit Ukraine. These attacks have taken down power grids and crippled critical infrastructure in an effort to sow discord in the country.

In October, Russia escalated the conflict, beginning a significant buildup of troops and equipment on the northern and eastern borders of Ukraine. The buildup came as prominent Russian figures heated up their rhetoric, including Putin declaring in a July essay that Ukraine and Russia are one country. Former President Dmitry Medvedev dismissed the idea of negotiating with the Ukrainians, saying, “It’s pointless for us to deal with vassals.” Putin has said he wants to prevent NATO from deploying weapons near Russian territory, which could undermine NATO’s support to Ukraine and leave members of the alliance without adequate defenses to deter Russian aggression.

Russia also is increasing its control of Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO allies Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Beginning in the spring, Belarus manufactured a migrant crisis along its border with its EU neighbors aimed at causing chaos in the region and to punish the West for their sanctions over human rights abuses and support of an opposition movement. This provided an excuse for Russia and Belarus to conduct joint military drills in the area. On top of this, the Russian quadrennial exercise ZAPAD, meant to simulate war with NATO, focused this past September on increasing command and control and further integration with the military of Belarus. The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, said during the exercise that the two countries “effectively have a single army.”

Lukashenko is engaged in a bitter campaign to hold onto power. He relies on Russia for political, financial, and security support, and his regime has been sanctioned by the U.S. and the European Union. Belarus has offered to host Russian nuclear weapons and could allow Putin to station troops on the Belarus-Ukraine border. This could require Ukraine to move troops to defend the border, which is close to the capital, Kyiv. Belarus recently recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea, which it had refused to do since 2014. This could be a significant sign that Belarus would support further Russian action in Ukraine, or at least not be an obstacle.

The growing tensions in the area point to a growing likelihood of an invasion of Ukraine. Even if that does not happen, Putin seems intent on bullying Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

signs that biden won’t stand up to putin

One explanation for why Russia has chosen this moment to become more aggressive is the apparent submissiveness of the Biden administration. Congress, the Trump administration, and the Obama administration supported policies to block construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Europe. This pipeline will allow Russia to control much of the flow of gas and oil into Europe and divert it away from Ukraine, which gains billions of dollars in revenue from transit fees. President Biden essentially blessed completion of the pipeline in July when he cut a deal with Germany that excluded Ukraine from the negotiations. This has perturbed other allies and partners in the region, including Poland, the Baltics, and Ukraine. The move sent a clear signal to Putin that the Biden administration values some allies over others.

President Biden also has rewarded Putin for his bad behavior, calling him “a worthy adversary” before a summit convened after Russian-based hackers shut down the Colonial Pipeline in the eastern U.S. At that summit, Biden also called Russia a “great power” alongside the United States. Putin has ignored the administration’s request to stop hacking our critical infrastructure, a sign he does not take President Biden seriously. Putin surely remembers that the Obama administration failed to provide Ukraine with lethal aid after the 2014 invasion, despite an international agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum that required the U.S. and Russia to preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for the country’s nuclear disarmament.

The Biden administration also has responded to Russia’s aggression and complaints by looking inward. The White House is reportedly scrutinizing the U.S. military’s exercises in Europe because some in the administration believe that our military presence in the region is too provocative. When Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, the U.S. was in the midst of its “Asia-Pacific pivot” away from Europe and was withdrawing two U.S. brigade combat teams from the continent. Current Biden administration officials contributed to those decisions in the Obama administration. The lesson they should have learned was that inaction and withdrawal provoked and emboldened Putin at that time, not U.S. military presence in the region.

The Democrats’ weak response

The world has a small window to prevent further escalation in Ukraine and the broader region. The U.S. could provide more lethal aid to Ukraine to help reinforce its military, including more Javelin anti-tank missiles; short range air defenses; additional counter-artillery radars; various sensors, drones, cyber and electronic defense tools; and ammunition for various weapon systems. The Biden administration could also take a hard line and enforce sanctions against Nord Stream 2 that it waived previously, to send a message to Moscow that the U.S. can and will defend our interests and our allies. President Biden signaled in his recent call to Putin that he will continue to waive the sanctions on Nord Stream 2 if Russia does not invade Ukraine. He also seems to have proposed a meeting with Russia and other NATO nations to discuss Ukraine. This move has infuriated our eastern NATO allies, who are worried that Russia is going to extract concessions and compromise the security of NATO countries bordering Russia.

Democrats in the Senate have moved to water down initiatives that could help dissuade Russia from its aggressive stance, due to Biden administration pressure. During consideration of the annual defense bill, Senator Risch led an amendment that would impose the mandatory sanctions on Nord Stream 2 that President Biden left on the table earlier this year. It would have subjected sanctions removal to congressional review, a tool Democrats used to exercise oversight and ensure agreement on Trump administration sanctions decisions. In response, Senator Menendez introduced a watered-down amendment that would have allowed the completion of Nord Stream 2 by giving the administration the ability to waive congressionally mandated sanctions. It also would delay sanctions until the administration determines Ukraine is being invaded, ignoring the invasion that began in 2014.

The president could also provide another package of defensive lethal military assistance using his Presidential Drawdown Authority. The administration blocked a similar package that the Department of Defense had developed to respond to the spring buildup, with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan saying it would only deliver the package after Russia invaded additional territory. After dragging its feet for months, the administration finally released the assistance in August, during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy’s visit to the White House. Since this authority begins anew at $100 million each fiscal year, a similar package could quickly deliver additional lethal military assistance to Ukraine, but the president and his top aides are again signaling to Putin that they will only take action if he invades – at which point it will be too late.