Ten Questions on Iran “Framework”
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A framework agreement should mean only technical details remain. Many issues remain to be finalized on the Iran nuclear deal, and they are far more than just technical details.
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Of what is known, not a single centrifuge will be destroyed; enrichment will continue; research and development will continue.
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With so many unanswered questions, congressional oversight is key.
President Obama has announced a prelude to a framework to continue negotiating a final agreement over Iran’s nuclear program. A framework should mean there is a meeting of the minds, and only technical details remain to be worked out. That standard has not been met. Many issues remain to be finalized – and they are far more than just technical details.
1. What, if anything, was agreed to on sanctions relief?
The president and Secretary of State Kerry said sanctions relief will be in phases. Iran’s supreme leader and foreign minister have said that all sanctions must be lifted immediately. That is not a technical issue. Is there agreement on any aspect of this issue?
2. How much money is at stake in future sanctions relief?
In the course of the interim agreement, Iran benefited from almost $12 billion in much-needed hard currency. It got additional income from the suspension of sanctions in the automotive, precious metals, and petrochemical sectors. How much money will Iran get from the sanctions relief in the final agreement?
3. Can we guarantee income from sanctions relief will not be redirected to supporting terrorism?
Money is fungible. Is there any demand in the final agreement that Iran not redirect the income it receives from sanctions relief to activities inimical to U.S. interests, such as Iran’s support for terrorists worldwide or for Bashar Assad in Syria?
4. What are snap back sanctions?
In announcing this framework agreement, President Obama said, “if Iran violates the deal, sanctions can be snapped back into place.” Neither he nor the accompanying fact sheet defined that term.
If Iran fails to live up to all its commitments under any final agreement, did our negotiating partners commit to reimposing sanctions?
What is the mechanism to automatically reimpose sanctions through a U.N. Security Council decision so that it is binding on all countries?
5. How are Iranian violations adjudicated?
Whatever the mechanism is, sanctions are to be “snapped” back into place if Iran violates the agreement. According to the White House fact sheet, this would be “in the event of significant non-performance.” What non-performance is insignificant?
The White House fact sheet goes on to say “a dispute resolution process will be specified ... to resolve disagreements about the performance of [the agreement’s] commitments.” Do we have to rely upon Russia and China to find significant Iranian non-performance? What is the dispute resolution process envisioned?
6. How is breakout time down to two to three months?
In announcing this framework, President Obama and Secretary Kerry defined Iran’s breakout time as currently two to three months. In October 2013, it was one year. Wendy Sherman, the administration’s chief negotiator, testified to Congress that if Iran’s “Supreme Leader decides that he truly wants to go for a nuclear weapon ... it could take as much as a year before he got there.”
President Obama, his administration, and his arms control surrogates have all continually claimed Iran’s nuclear program has been “frozen” under the interim agreement. Vice President Biden repeated that claim. So the Iranian nuclear breakout time should either still be one year or supporters have been misrepresenting the success of the interim agreement all along.
What does this say about the credibility of claims that Iran’s breakout time will be maintained at one year under any final agreement?
7. What research and development is allowed for advanced centrifuges?
The White house fact sheet says Iran is permitted “limited” research and development into advanced centrifuges. What does that permit? What is prohibited?
It further says the research and development will take place “according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.” Did Iran agree to these limitations? What are they?
8. How quickly will Iran’s breakout time decrease after the enrichment limitations sunset?
Not a single centrifuge will be dismantled under this agreement. Iran can do research and development on advanced centrifuges. Under the final agreement it can still enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent purity, which represents about 70 percent of the effort required to get to weapons-grade levels of uranium enrichment. When the enrichment limits on Iran sunset, how quickly will Iran’s breakout time decrease and how long will the time period then be?
9. Anything on missiles?
The White House press secretary has said any final agreement must address the U.N. Security Council resolutions, which have “provisions relating to ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.” How was this issue resolved so that only technical issues remain to be worked out?
10. Was any progress made on investigating the military dimensions of Iran’s program?
The White House fact sheet calls upon Iran to “implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the possible military dimensions of its program.” Was any progress made on this issue?
In November 2013, Iran signed a framework agreement with the IAEA to address the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program. It provided 12 issue areas to work on. The IAEA director general recently said Iran has addressed only one of those areas.
If Iran has already made a commitment to address this issue and is failing miserably to carry it out, what will be different under the final agreement?
Conclusion
Iran will not dismantle, or even render inoperable, many important parts of its uranium enrichment infrastructure. Not a single centrifuge will be destroyed.
Iran’s foreign minister has made clear that research will not stop: “None of those measures include closing any of our facilities … We will continue enriching, we will continue research and development, our heavy-water reactor [at Arak] will be modernized, and our facility in Fordow will remain open.”
With so many unanswered questions, and these are just a few, Congress must be vigilant in reviewing any final agreement.
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