Putin's Aggression Expands NATO

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has convinced Europeans to take their security challenges seriously and pushed Sweden and Finland to apply to join NATO. As advanced economies with strong militaries, both could make an immediate contribution to the alliance.
• A stronger NATO means a more secure Europe, which would support U.S. security and diplomatic interests around the globe.
• It is clearly in America’s interest to welcome these two countries into NATO. Since the U.S. is a leading voice in the alliance, the Senate should move quickly to ratify their accession. 

Russia’s unprovoked violence against Ukraine has backfired and is strengthening the continent’s resolve to bolster its collective defense. Finland and Sweden, already strong partners of the U.S., have taken the historic step to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Both of these countries will bring large, modern, and highly capable militaries to the alliance. A stronger NATO means a more secure Europe, safeguarding U.S. interests in the region, which will give the U.S. more room to focus on other threats, such as China.

NATO Accession Timeline

U.S. ratification the accession of Sweden and Finland as quickly as possible will send a message to our NATO allies that we value these countries, and it will demonstrate U.S. leadership in the alliance. The Senate plays a key advice and consent role and should move quickly to consider the accessions when they are submitted by the president.

NATO’s ROLE in the world

Since 1949, NATO has secured Europe and the U.S. against Soviet and Russian aggression through the commitment to collective defense by its members. Currently, NATO is made up of 30 countries in Europe and North America that coordinate forces, development of defense capabilities, and security efforts in the transatlantic region. NATO has invoked its Article 5 “collective defense” clause only once: in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when European members initiated the process on our behalf. Invoking this clause, like nearly all NATO decisions, must be done by unanimous consent of member countries.

The U.S. is by far the largest contributor to NATO in terms of military spending and military capabilities. In order to ensure that all alliance members can contribute to joint military operations if needed, they must pledge to spend 2% of their GDP each year on defense. In 2021, eight NATO countries met their spending commitment, up from four in 2016. This improvement was largely due to prodding by the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress. Twenty-one members spent at least 20% of their defense budgets on new capabilities, another key spending commitment, and 2021 marked the seventh year in a row that defense spending rose in the alliance, not including the U.S. Countries that have not yet met the budget goals have been improving their efforts. Finland already spends 2% on defense, and Sweden is expected to meet the goal soon.

Recent operations by NATO have included Resolute Support in Afghanistan, Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean, and air policing over the Baltic states. These kinds of missions in Europe have helped NATO deter Russia and supported counterterrorism efforts, while allowing the U.S. to focus on the Pacific region. Finland and Sweden have already proven to be reliable security partners by contributing troops to the operation in Afghanistan and others.

FINLAND and SWEDEN can support U.S. INTERESTS

Both Finland and Sweden are expected to be “net security contributors” to the alliance. Both countries have planned for decades to defend themselves without NATO assistance and have contributed to NATO missions even without being members of the organization. They will bring to the alliance their advanced and capable militaries, their intimate understanding of the Russian threat, and their strategic location, which gives NATO a stronger presence in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic.

In 2021, Finland signed a deal with the U.S. to purchase 64 F-35 fighter jets to replace their F-18s, meaning it will have a large fleet of advanced fighters that will be interoperable with other NATO militaries. With one of the largest armies in Europe, it also has a substantial reserve force that could mobilize quickly in the event of further Russian aggression. Sweden also has an advanced military. This includes weapon systems like the Gotland diesel electric submarine, one of the most advanced air-independent conventional submarines in the world. The Swedes have a large air force and some of the best offensive cyber capabilities in Europe, a key tool to counter Russian and Chinese cyberattacks. Sweden recently bought Patriot air defense missiles from the U.S. to defend its territory.

If these two countries join the alliance, the entire Arctic except for Russia will be NATO member territory. This will strengthen America’s ability to drive security policies in this increasingly strategic part of the globe. It will also simplify NATO’s plans to defend our Baltic allies. With Northern Europe unified under NATO, potential operations defending the Baltic states against Russia would not depend on pushing through the Kaliningrad enclave in Europe or relying on the Suwalki Gap in Poland. This would severely complicate Russia’s military planning and should reduce the likelihood that it attacks the Baltics. Finland’s membership in the alliance would create an enormous conundrum for Russia, which would have a new 830-mile border with NATO.

Both countries have advanced economies, which will help the alliance challenge Russian and Chinese coercive economic influence in Europe. Finland and Sweden are home to the only two viable alternatives to the 5G telecommunications network infrastructure made by Chinese state-controlled companies Huawei and ZTE. Further strengthening our relationship will help make them more aligned with U.S. security and economic policies.

The Senate and the Accession Process

The Senate will need to ratify the accession of any new NATO member, as it did most recently in 2019 when it ratified the accession of North Macedonia. A quick process in the Senate can reaffirm U.S. leadership in NATO and send a clear message to the alliance that this accession is important to the U.S. and that Russian aggression is not tolerated. 

To begin the process, NATO, via the North Atlantic Council, will negotiate the terms of accession with Finland and Sweden. Once they settle on the protocols, all member states need to ratify those accession protocols for the two countries to become members.

In the U.S., once a protocol is sent, the president signs it and then submits it to the Senate for ratification. The Government Accountability Office, the State Department, and the Department of Defense submit reports on the proposed accession that detail how the potential new members will affect the alliance and U.S. security. The Foreign Relations Committee will then have the chance to hold hearings and report a resolution of ratification. If the committee reports this resolution to the floor, the full Senate will vote to approve the resolution.

With Finland and Sweden in NATO, Russia will be faced with a strengthened and more unified Europe. This would complicate Vladimir Putin’s plans to destabilize more of the continent and carve out an anti-U.S. sphere of influence, which would ultimately harm America.