October 2015 Jobs Report

Unemployment Rate: 5.0 percent

Unemployed Americans: 7.9 million

Employment and Unemployment

1. The Department of Labor reported an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent for October, down 0.1 from last month. It reported an increase of 271,000 nonfarm jobs in October. Economists had anticipated job growth in October to be 180,000. Employment for August was revised up from 136,000 to 153,000 jobs created; and September was revised down from 142,000 to 137,000. 
2. Job growth has averaged 187,000 over the past three months. In 2014, job growth averaged 260,000 a month.
3. Unemployment in October among those ages 16-19 was 15.9 percent, down from 16.3 percent from last month. Among those 20-24, the unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from September. For African-Americans, the unemployment rate was 9.2 percent, unchanged from last month.
4. The number of long-term unemployed, those unemployed for 27 weeks or more, was 2.1 million. They account for 26.8 percent of the unemployed, up from 26.6 percent in the prior month and down from 31.9 a year ago.
5. The “real” unemployment or U-6 rate is 9.8 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from September. This is the total percentage of unemployed and underemployed workers.
6. The “real” number of unemployed Americans is 15.6 million. These are people who are unemployed (7.9 million), want work but have stopped searching for a job (1.9 million), or are working part time because they cannot find full time employment (5.8 million).
7. In October, employment grew by 78,000 in professional and business services; 45,000 in health care; 44,000 in retail trade; and 42,000 in food services and drinking places. There was little to no change in employment in manufacturing, wholesale trade, financial activities and government. Employment in mining fell by 5,000 in October, and has declined by 109,000 since December 2014. 

Labor Force Participation

1. The labor force participation rate is 62.4 percent, unchanged from last month and the lowest level in 38 years. The persistently low labor force participation rate shows that millions of Americans are staying on the sidelines. Since April 2014, the participation rate had been stuck in a narrow range of 62.4 and 62.9 percent. Prior to the recession, the rate stood at 66 percent. 
2. If the labor force participation rate were the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 9.8 percent.
3. The share of American adults with jobs in October was 59.3 percent, up 0.1 from September. This is about four percentage points below its pre-recession peak. 
4. The Federal Reserve has been weighing whether to raise its short-term interest rate. The rate has remained near zero since 2008 in an effort to boost the economy. Following its October meeting, the Federal Reserve noted that rates have not been raised because it continues to see “risks to the outlook for economic activity.” In testimony before the House earlier this week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that she expects that “the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labor market and to return inflation to our 2 percent target over the medium term, and if the incoming information supports that expectation, then December would be a live possibility.” The next Fed meeting is December 15-16. 

Wages

1. In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $25.20. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent.
2. October was the 75th straight month that year-over-year hourly wage growth has been at or below 2.5 percent. Prior to the recession, wage growth routinely exceeded three percent.