Obamacare Sign-Up Total Is Not the End of the Debate

On Tuesday, President Obama declared the national debate on the health care law “over.” The White House can celebrate its dubious 7.1 million sign-up number, but to a majority of Americans, this debate is far from over. According to an April 2 Quinnipiac poll, 55 percent of Americans remain opposed to the health care law.

People understand that the administration is inflating its Obamacare numbers. The administration’s 7.1 million total includes people who selected a plan on HealthCare.gov, put it in their e-shopping cart, but never followed through and bought the plan. It also includes people who won’t pay their first or second month’s premium, and so won't actually have insurance.

The real Obamacare enrollment total is likely to be 20 to 25 percent lower than the administration’s report. Despite the president's premature victory lap, nagging questions remain about the validity of the administration’s data.

1. How many people paid their first month’s premium? The Obama Administration’s sign-up totals are not transparent. The Administration continues to count people as “enrolled” in Obamacare if they successfully selected a health insurance plan. But until people pay the first month’s health insurance premium, they do not have coverage. This number is very important, and it's lagging. The Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association says that 80 to 85 percent of people who bought BCBS plans through the exchange were paying their premium. 
2.  How many people are newly insured? The Administration still hasn’t clarified how many of the enrolled people simply renewed coverage, switched from one private plan to another, or would have qualified for Medicaid without Obamacare. McKinsey estimated only 27 percent of people who signed up for Obamacare by early February were newly insured. Even this number is an estimate – HHS officials don’t even see a need to track the one metric Democrats said they passed the health care law to improve.

The Obama administration insists it cannot provide these two key data points. Secretary Sebelius argues HHS cannot present accurate enrollment totals because insurers only transmit “aggregate data” about people eligible for subsidies – not people who pay full price for coverage. Insurers contend they have given HHS sufficient data to provide more realistic enrollment numbers. One source said the Administration “[has] hard data about the percent that have paid … If they have not processed [it] yet … that is a choice they are making. But they have that data now.”

It appears the most transparent Administration in history is deliberately misrepresenting enrollment data to advance a political agenda. Perhaps the truth is that the administration won’t produce this information because the answers aren’t good. It’s politically convenient that the White House can quickly say how many people signed up, but they can’t deliver transparent and complete data on the law’s basic metrics – data that will ultimately define the law’s success or failure.

Democrats desperately need a good news story to try to spin the health care law as a success. But there is danger in failing to come clean with the American people. If Obamacare ultimately covers only a small fraction of the uninsured, then people may not find the law’s negative economic impact – from cancelled coverage, premium spikes, job losses, and middle-class tax increases – to have been worth it.     

Health Care Headlines

Forbes: “Census Data: Since 2008, There’s Been No Net Change In The Proportion of Young Adults With Health Coverage” It has been one of Democrats’ favorite talking points: that thanks to Obamacare’s mandate that family-based insurance coverage cover “adult children” aged 18 to 26, “an additional 3 million young adults have gained coverage.” There’s only one problem. That figure is based on a misleading and superficial study by the Obama administration.

The Hill: “Gibbs: Employer mandate won’t happen” Former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs predicted Wednesday that the oft-delayed ObamaCare employer mandate will never go into effect. “I don’t think the employer mandate will go into effect. It’s a small part of the law. I think it will be one of the first things to go,” Gibbs told a crowd in Colorado.

Forbes: “Blue Cross Says ’80-85’ Percent Of Obamacare Enrollees Are Paying” The Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association, which represents the nation’s Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans, says “80-85” percent of newly enrolled individuals buying plans under the Affordable Care Act are paying their premiums.

Wall Street Journal: “More Than Seven Million Sign Up for Health Coverage, Obama Says” President Barack Obama, applauding the news that 7.1 million people signed up for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, set the stage Tuesday for Democrats to move beyond the law's rocky rollout and go on the offense.

Reuters: “US insurers fear backlash over new Obamacare rate increases” As the first Obamacare enrollment period comes to a close, U.S. insurers are already anticipating the need to raise prices for 2015 and fear that it will put them at the center of the political blame game over President Barack Obama's healthcare law.