March 2016 Jobs Report

Unemployment Rate: 5.0 percent

Unemployed Americans: 8.0 million

Employment and Unemployment

1. The Department of Labor reported an unemployment rate of 5.0 percent for March, up 0.1 from last month. It reported an increase of 215,000 nonfarm jobs in March. Today’s job growth figure exceeded analysts’ job growth prediction of 210,000. Employment for January was revised down from 172,000 to 168,000 jobs created; and February was revised up from 242,000 to 245,000. 
2. Unemployment in March among those ages 16-19 was 15.9 percent, up 0.3 percent from the previous month. Among those 20-24, the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from February. For African-Americans, the unemployment rate was 9.0 percent, up 0.2 percent from the prior month.
3. The number of long-term unemployed, those unemployed for 27 weeks or more, was 2.2 million. They account for 27.6 percent of the unemployed, down from 26.7 percent in the prior month and down from 29.5 percent a year ago.
4. The “real” unemployment or U-6 rate is 9.8 percent, up 0.1 percent. This is the total percentage of unemployed and underemployed workers.
5. The “real” number of unemployed Americans is 15.8 million. These are people who are unemployed (8.0 million), want work but have stopped searching for a job (1.7 million), or are working part time because they cannot find full-time employment (6.1 million).
6. While the recession ended nearly seven years ago, unemployment rates in most states remain higher than their average annual rate in 2007. The start of the recession was pegged to December 2007, and it ended in June 2009. In 2015, unemployment rates in just 14 states had returned to or fallen below their 2007 averages: Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, and Wisconsin. 
7. In March, employment grew by 48,000 in retail trade; 37,000 in health care; 37,000 in construction; and 25,000 in food services and drinking places. Employment in manufacturing decreased by 29,000 last month, and employment in mining fell by 12,000 in March. Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in mining has decreased by 185,000. 

Labor Force Participation

1. The labor force participation rate is 63.0 percent, up 0.1 from last month and remaining near the lowest level in 38 years. The persistently low labor force participation rate shows that millions of Americans are staying on the sidelines. Since October 2013, the participation rate has largely been stuck in a narrow range of 62.5 to 63.0 percent. Prior to the recession, the rate was 66 percent. 
2. If the labor force participation rate were the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 8.9 percent.
3. The share of American adults with jobs in March was 59.9 percent, up 0.1 percent from last month. This is nearly 4 percentage points below its pre-recession peak. 
4. After raising its main interest rate by 0.25 percent in December 2015, the Federal Reserve appears to be reluctant to make another adjustment. In comments earlier this week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that “global economic and financial uncertainty poses risks to the U.S. economy and justifies a lower path of interest-rate increases.” The next meeting of the Federal Reserve is April 26-27.   

Wages

1. In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $25.43, following last month’s decrease of 2 cents. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent.
2. March was the 80^th straight month that year-over-year hourly wage growth has been at or below 2.5 percent. Prior to the recession, wage growth routinely exceeded three percent.
3. According to MarketWatch this morning: “Although wage gains have picked up, they are still increasing at a much slower rate than is typical so far into a recovery. Sluggish pay is a big reason why the U.S. economy has been unable to speed up.”