Afghanistan is Once Again a Terrorist Haven

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Republicans warned the Biden administration that leaving Afghanistan in haste would allow the country to become a terrorist haven again. The al-Zawahri strike proved those fears correct.
• The administration still has no plan to deal with terrorism effectively and still does not see that the Taliban supports terrorism.
• Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation continues to get worse as much of the country loses access to basic human rights and needs. 

On August 15, 2021, Kabul fell to the Taliban in the midst of President Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. The president justified pulling all American troops out of the country by saying al-Qaida was no longer in Afghanistan. What came after was a chaotic withdrawal that was caused by what a Senate Foreign Relations Committee minority report called a failure to “effectively plan, coordinate, and execute an orderly withdrawal and evacuation.” One year later, the country is once again a hotbed of terrorists, just as Republicans warned. The administration still has no plan to contain the threat beyond vague references to an “over-the-horizon” strategy. The president’s mishandling of the situation has contributed to a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan. 

Terrorist Hotbed

On July 31, the administration killed Ayman al-Zawahri, the leader of al-Qaida, in Afghanistan. The administration touted it as proof it will not let Afghanistan become a haven for terrorists. The strike on Zawahri is notable for a few reasons, but perhaps the most telling was the fact that it was in Kabul. He was not on the run from security forces trying to hunt him down but was living with his family in an upscale neighborhood, reportedly near other Taliban officials. According to the White House, “Senior Haqqani Taliban figures were aware of [Zawahri’s] presence in Kabul.” The leader of the Haqqani network, a designated terrorist group affiliated with al-Qaida, is also the Taliban’s interior minister.

 “What interest do we have in Afghanistan at this point with al-Qaida gone?” – President Joe Biden, 08-20-2021 

It should not have been a surprise to the administration that al-Qaida’s leader lived in Kabul. In July 2021, a U.N. report said al-Qaida “is present in at least 15 Afghan provinces, primarily in the eastern, southern and south-eastern regions. Its weekly Thabat newsletter reports on its operations inside Afghanistan. Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand and Nimruz Provinces.”

Al-Qaida is not the only threat coming from Afghanistan, as the Islamic State group is very active. It was an IS suicide bomber who killed 13 U.S. troops and more than 100 Afghan civilians at the Kabul airport on August 26, 2021, as the Biden administration rushed to flee the country. In a report last month, the U.N. Security Council said that the terrorist group’s hubs in Afghanistan are among its “most vigorous and well established” networks.

Both groups have demonstrated the capacity to attack abroad and will continue to pursue those opportunities. The State Department itself issued a worldwide caution to U.S. citizens saying that supporters of al-Qaida “may seek to attack U.S. facilities, personnel, or citizens” in response to the strike that killed al-Zawahri. 

Lack of a plan

The administration claims it will protect the U.S. with an “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism strategy, but provides few details about what that is. Counterterrorism operations are rarely afforded the ability to develop intelligence on a stationary target for months, as terrorists tend to move around a lot to avoid detection. In many cases we have partners or a U.S. presence in the area to help locate the target, as well as assets nearby to provide surveillance and quick strike capability. Despite our operation killing al-Zawahri, the U.S. withdrawal significantly curtailed our ability to track and target terrorist in the country. One top military leader in the region conceded, in an interview with the Associated Press last December, that “we’re probably at about 1 or 2% of the capabilities we once had to look into Afghanistan” and track terrorists threatening the United States. The administration has not clearly communicated a plan to bridge the operational gaps it created by pulling all U.S. forces out of Afghanistan, and some experts are skeptical that it can actually come up with one.

a humanitarian crisis that didn’t have to happen

Beyond the increased danger that comes with allowing Afghanistan to become a safe haven for terrorists once again, the Biden pullout is leaving a legacy of human suffering. A U.N. report released in July highlighted the widespread extrajudicial killings; arbitrary arrests and detentions; torture; and the erosion of the rights of women under the Taliban. Girls can no longer go to secondary school, and 59% of Afghans now need humanitarian assistance. Amnesty International released a report late last month saying: “For women in Afghanistan, it’s death in slow motion.”

Senate Republicans have offered ways to try to solve the crisis that the withdrawal created. Ranking member Jim Risch of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee introduced the Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act last September. It would require the president to impose sanctions on any entity in Afghanistan that supports terrorism, narcotics trafficking, or human rights abuses. The administration should also think twice about unfreezing Afghan Central Bank funds without a strict framework to ensure that the money is not diverted to the Taliban and away from humanitarian relief.

As the Afghan people continue to suffer at the hands of the Taliban, it will only make the terrorist threat worse. The Taliban and al-Qaida are at war with IS in Afghanistan, and these groups will use the human suffering to grow their ranks. The administration does not seem to have answers to these problems or how to keep Afghanistan from remaining a haven for terrorist groups.